Japan’s rare earth push raises Arctic and deep-sea risks

Japan is weighing rare earth projects in Greenland and near Minamitorishima as it tries to reduce dependence on China. But the plans face major environmental, technical and economic hurdles, and commercial returns remain uncertain.

Why it matters: - Japan’s resource-security strategy is moving into environments that are among the most fragile on Earth. - The Arctic and the deep ocean floor both carry high environmental risks, while the commercial payoff remains uncertain. - The push reflects a broader effort to reduce dependence on China, which dominates global rare earth supply and has tightened export controls.

What happened: - A Japanese delegation including the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, major trading houses, and the Japan Organization for Metals and Energy Security is scheduled to assess heavy rare earth potential at the Tanbreez deposit in southern Greenland in July and August. - Japan carried out a world-first trial in early 2026 to lift rare-earth-rich mud from roughly 6,000 meters below the surface near Minamitorishima. - The trial was led by the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology.

The details: - Greenland rare earth deposits are often associated with radioactive elements such as uranium and thorium. - Greenland’s parliament restricted uranium-bearing mining in 2021, which stalled the Kvanefjeld project. - Mining in Greenland raises concerns about toxic tailings, water contamination and damage to Arctic ecosystems. - Building mining infrastructure across carbon-rich permafrost adds climate risk. - Independent analysts, including Wood Mackenzie, say Greenland has no operating rare earth mines, limited infrastructure, a small labor pool and project costs that make development less competitive than in Canada, Australia and the United States. - More than a decade after exploration began, Greenland still has no commercial rare earth mine in production. - Deep-sea ecosystems at the relevant depths recover poorly, if at all, from disturbance. - Sediment plumes from seabed extraction can spread beyond the mining site. - Deep-sea mud contains only about two kilograms of rare earth elements per tonne. - The research vessel Chikyu costs tens of millions of yen per day to operate. - Some analyses put deep-sea production costs far above China’s onshore operations, with payback periods stretching well over a decade. - JAMSTEC has acknowledged that mining so far from the mainland offers little near-term prospect of profitability or price competitiveness.

Between the lines: - The latest plans fit a familiar pattern in Japan: bold resource-security announcements that move faster than industrial delivery. - Greenland’s stalled rare earth projects show how political and regulatory obstacles can delay development for years. - The deep-sea project is even earlier in the process, with no commercial extraction ever achieved at such depths and a demonstration phase only tentatively scheduled for 2027. - Some Japanese commentators have said the timing of the Minamitorishima announcement also served domestic political goals. - The article argues that the recurring gap between announcement and execution risks wasting public funds while creating new environmental harm.

What’s next: - Japanese officials will assess the Tanbreez deposit during the summer visit. - The deep-sea effort is expected to move toward a demonstration phase in 2027 if the program advances. - A more practical path, the article argues, would focus on recycling, processing efficiency and alternative materials before expanding risky overseas or deep-sea mining.

The bottom line: - Japan wants a more secure rare earth supply, but its most ambitious options may be the hardest to justify on environmental or economic grounds.